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\begin{document}

\title{Regional inversion shows promise in capturing extreme-event-driven CO2
flux anomalies but is limited by atmospheric CO2 observational coverage}



\author[1]{Brendan Byrne}%
\author[2]{Junjie Liu}%
\author[3]{Kevin W. Bowman}%
\author[4]{Yi Yin}%
\author[5]{Jeongmin Yun}%
\author[6]{Gabriel Ferreira}%
\author[6]{Stephen Ogle}%
\author[7]{Latha Baskaran}%
\author[8]{Liyin He}%
\author[9]{Xing Li}%
\author[10]{Jingfeng Xiao}%
\author[11]{Kenneth J. Davis}%
\affil[1]{Jet Propulsion Lab}%
\affil[2]{Jet Propulsion Laboratory}%
\affil[3]{Jet Propulsion Lab (NASA)}%
\affil[4]{New York University}%
\affil[5]{NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory}%
\affil[6]{Colorado State University}%
\affil[7]{Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology}%
\affil[8]{Carnegie Institution for Science}%
\affil[9]{Seoul National University}%
\affil[10]{University of New Hampshire}%
\affil[11]{Pennsylvania State University}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, with poorly
understood implications for carbon sequestration by terrestrial
ecosystems. A better understanding will critically depend on accurate
and precise quantification of ecosystems responses to these events.
Taking the 2019 US Midwest floods as a case study, we investigate
current capabilities for tracking regional flux anomalies with
``top-down'' inversion analyses that assimilate atmospheric CO2
observations. For this analysis, we develop a regionally nested version
of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System-Flux (CMS-Flux) that allows high
resolution atmospheric transport (0.5\selectlanguage{ngerman}° × 0.625°) over a North America
domain. Relative to a 2018 baseline, we find US Midwest growing season
net carbon uptake is reduced by 11-57 TgC (3-16\%) for 2019 (inversion
mean estimates across experiments). These estimates are found to be
consistent with independent ``bottom-up'' estimates of carbon uptake
based on vegetation remote sensing. We then investigate current
limitations in tracking regional carbon emissions and removals by
ecosystems using ``top-down'' methods. In a set of observing system
simulation experiments, we show that the ability to recover regional
carbon flux anomalies is still limited by observational coverage gaps
for both in situ and satellite observations. Future space-based missions
that allow for daily observational coverage across North America would
largely mitigate these observational gaps, allowing for improved
top-down estimates of ecosystem responses to extreme climate events.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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