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\begin{document}

\title{Examination of Current and Future Permafrost Dynamics Across the North
American Taiga-Tundra Ecotone}



\author[1,1]{Bradley Gay}%
\author[2,2]{Amanda Armstrong}%
\author[3,3]{Paul Montesano}%
\author[4,4]{Batuhan Osmanoglu}%
\author[4,4]{Kenneth Ranson}%
\author[5,5]{Howard Epstein}%
\affil[1]{George Mason University Fairfax}%
\affil[2]{Universities Space Research Association Columbia}%
\affil[3]{NASA Goddard Space Flight Center | SSAI}%
\affil[4]{NASA Goddard Space Flight Center}%
\affil[5]{University of Virginia}%


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  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
In the Arctic, the spatial distribution of boreal forest cover and soil
profile transition characterizing the taiga-tundra ecological transition
zone (TTE) is experiencing an alarming transformation. The SIBBORK-TTE
model provides a unique opportunity to predict the spatiotemporal
distribution patterns of vegetation heterogeneity, forest structure
change, arctic-boreal forest interactions, and ecosystem transitions
with high resolution scaling across broad domains. Within the TTE,
evolving climatological and biogeochemical dynamics facilitate moisture
signaling and nutrient cycle disruption, i.e. permafrost thaw and
nutrient decomposition, thereby catalyzing land cover change and
ecosystem instability. To demonstrate these trends, in situ ground
measurements for active layer depth were collected to cross-validate
below-ground-enhanced modeled simulations from 1996-2017. Shifting
trends in permafrost variability (i.e. active layer depth) and
seasonality were derived from model results and compared statistically
to the in situ data. The SIBBORK-TTE model was then run to project
future below-ground conditions utilizing CMIP6 scenarios. Upon
visualization and curve-integrated analysis of the simulated freeze-thaw
dynamics, the calculated performance metric associated with annual
maximum active layer depth rate of change yielded 76.19\%. Future
climatic conditions indicate an increase in active layer depth and
shifting seasonality across the TTE. With this novel approach,
spatiotemporal variation of active layer depth provides an opportunity
for identifying climate and topographic drivers and forecasting
permafrost variability and earth system feedback mechanisms.%
\end{abstract}%



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