The Polar Cap (PC) indices are derived from the magnetic variations generated by the transpolar convection of magnetospheric plasma and embedded magnetic fields driven by the interaction with the solar wind. The PC indices are potentially very useful for Space Weather monitoring and forecasts and for related research. However, the PC index series in the near-real time and final versions endorsed by the International Association for Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) are considered unreliable. Both versions include solar wind sector (SWS) effects in the calculation of the reference levels from which magnetic disturbances are measured. The SWS effects are caused by current systems in the dayside Cusp region related to the Y-component, B, of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). However, the IAGA-endorsed handling of SWS effects may generate unfounded PC index changes of up to 3 mV/m at the nightside away from the Cusp. For the real-time PCN and PCS indices, the cubic spline-based reference level construction may cause additional unjustified index excursions of more than 3 mV/m with respect to the corresponding final index values. Noting that PC index values above 2 mV/m indicate geomagnetic storm conditions, such unjustified contributions are considered to invalidate the IAGA-endorsed PC index series. Alternative derivation methods are shown to provide more consistent index reference levels for both final and real-time PC indices, to reduce their unfounded excursions, and to significantly increase their reliability.
The relations between transpolar plasma convection intensities recorded by the Polar Cap (PC) indices and magnetospheric ring current intensities recorded by the asymmetric ASY-H indices and the symmetric Dst and SYM-H indices are examined. The present work believed to be the first of its kind examines the validity of previously derived relations between polar cap and ring current indices when used in real time applications. Polar cap (PC) indices are here derived in simulated real-time versions by using past data only from -40 days up to current time in the construction of the quiet reference levels (QDCs) for the magnetic data. From analyses spanning a decade (2009-2018), equivalent ASY-H index values were derived from a linear relation with simulated real-time PCN (North) and PCS (South) indices combined to form the non-negative PCC indices. For cases of strong magnetic storms (Dst(peak)<-100 nT, the equivalent ASY-H indices were found to agree well with reported (real) ASY-H index values. The simulated real-time PCC indices, furthermore, have been used in a PC-based source function to derive equivalent values of the total ring current indices Dst (or SYM-H) up to one hour ahead of time. With integration of the source function throughout a decade (2009-2018) with no attachment to reported Dst values, the simulated real-time equivalent Dst indices displayed close agreement with real Dst index values. The applied method could be used without modifications to generate PC index values and derived ASY-H and Dst (or SYM-H) index values in real-time space weather applications.
The non-negative Polar Cap PCC index built from PCN (North) and PCS (South) indices correlates better with the solar wind merging electric field and is more representative for the total energy input from the solar wind to the magnetosphere and for the development of geomagnetic disturbances represented by the Kp index and ring current indices than either of the hemispheric indices. The present work shows that the ring current index, Dst, to a high degree of accuracy can be derived from a source function built from PCC indices. The integration of the PCC-based source function throughout the interval from 1992 to 2018 without attachment to the real Dst indices based on low latitude magnetic observations has generated equivalent Dst values that correlate very well (R=0.86) with the real Dst index values, which are represented with a mean deviation less than 1 nT and an overall rms deviation less than 13 nT. The precise correlation between the real and equivalent Dst values has been used to correct the PCC indices for saturation effects at high intensity disturbance conditions where the Dst index may take values beyond-100 nT. The relations between PCC and the ring current indices, Dst and ASY-H have been used, in addition, to derive the precise timing between polar cap convection processes reflected in the polar cap indices and the formation of the partial and total ring current systems. Building the ring current is considered to represent the energy input from the solar wind, which also powers auroral disturbance processes such as substorms and upper atmosphere heating. With current available PC indices, detailed and accurate SYM-H or Dst index values could be derived up to nearly one hour ahead of actual time by integration of the PCC-based source function from any previous quiet state. Thus, the PCC indices enabling accurate estimates of the energy input from the solar wind are powerful tools for space weather monitoring and for solar-terrestrial research. 1. Introduction. In the early Space Age, Dungey (1961) formulated the concept of magnetic merging processes taking place at the front of the magnetosphere between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), when southward oriented, and the geomagnetic field, followed by the draping of the combined field over the pole and reconnection processes in the tail region, where the solar wind magnetic fields as well as the geomagnetic fields were restored. The model implies a two-cell convection system, where the high-latitude antisunward ionospheric and magnetospheric plasma drift across the polar cap and the return flow in a sunward motion along auroral latitudes generate the two-cell “forward convection” patterns, now termed DP2. Later, Dungey (1963) extended his model to include cases where IMF is northward (NBZ conditions),