Model validation
We validated the model by comparing simulated (= predicted) timings of
TDM and OAB to observations from lakes for which relevant data on
phytoplankton (15 lakes) and Daphnia (18 lakes) could be
extracted from the literature (Supplement S3 Model validation). Linear
regressions of observed vs. predicted timings of both OAB and TDM give
good statistical fits (R2 ≥ 0.6) and indicate that the
predictions are unbiased, i.e. regression slopes are not significantly
different from 1 and intercepts not different from zero (Supplement S3
Model validation). A similar analysis based on observations of PLD was
not meaningful, because we were unable to find data with sufficient
temporal resolution on both OAB and TDM for more than five lakes.