To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we provide an example of how it could be used to interpret and explain a hypothetical scenario in which freshwater ecosystems are experiencing less warming-related turnover (also known as thermophilization) than terrestrial ecosystems (Figure 2). By examining each fundamental community process as a possible driver of this pattern, we can gain a better understanding of why differences may emerge across terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and use this knowledge to make predictions about other systems and future impacts. In this hypothetical scenario, freshwater communities are buffered from some warming effects due to the heat capacity of water, which slows warming in this system. This buffering effect decreases the selection pressure on freshwater communities to thermophilize, and could drive the hypothesized pattern in which freshwater communities experience weaker warming impacts. However, it may also be that the dendritic nature of freshwater systems, in particular streams and rivers, may reduce the capacity for warm-adapted species to enter the community via dispersal, which would also reduce thermophilization. Finally, our approach increases the focus on the under-studied processes of drift and speciation as drivers of changes in current and future ecosystems. For example, in the longer term, freshwater communities may recover from warming-related species losses faster than terrestrial ecosystems through speciation. This is because the more isolated habitat structure and smaller population sizes of many freshwater taxa may promote in situ speciation in this ecosystem.