A prediction model based on functional mitral regurgitation for
the recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF) after
post-circular pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation (CPVA)
Jingyu Sheng1,2, Zhenni Yang2, Min
Xu2, JunMeng2, Mingxia
Gong2, Yuxia Miao2, Ling
Yang2
1Department of Electrocardiography, Wujin Hospital
Affiliated with Jiangsu University, The Wujin Clinical college of Xuzhou
Medical University, Changzhou, China;
2Department of Cardiovascular Division, the Third
Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Chang Zhou, China;
Correspondence to: Min Xu and Ling yang, Department of Cardiovascular
Division, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Chang
Zhou 213003, China;Email: loisicelin@163.com and linda_yl@sina.com.
Jingyu Sheng and Zhenni Yang are the first coauthors and contributed
equally to this work.
- The data that support the findings of this study are available on
request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly
available dute to privacy or ethical restrictions.
- Funding:
The Changzhou City Technology Bureau has no role in this study.
- Conflict of Interest statement
All the authors do not have any conflicts of interest.
3.Ethical Statement
This study was in compliance with the ”Declaration of Helsinki” and
was approved by the Scientific Ethics Committee of Soochow University.
4.Acknowledgement
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant No. 82070405); National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant No. 81471690); Changzhou City Technology Bureau (CJ20190086).
5.Informed consents of all patients were obtained from the patients
themselves.
6.Conflict of Interest Disclosure
All authors declare that: (1) they have not received any support from
any organization having an interest in the submitted works, whether
financial or otherwise; (2) there are no other relationships or
activities that may affect the submitted works.
【Abstract】Aim To construct a prediction model based on
functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) in patients with paroxysmal atrial
fibrillation (PAF) for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after
the post-circular pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation (CPVA).Methods We retrospectively analyzed 289 patients with PAF who
underwent CPVA for the first time . The patients were randomly divided
into modeling group and verification group at the ratio of 75:25. In the
modeling group, the multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze
and construct a prediction model for post-CPVA recurrence in PAF
patients, which was then validated in the verification group.Results (1) After 3-6 months of follow-up, the patients were
divided into sinus rhythm group (252 cases) and recurrence group (24
cases); (2) In the modeling group, the age, LAD(left atrial diameter)
and degree of MR (mild, moderate, severe) were higher in recurrence
group than that of the sinus rhythm group, and the left atrial appendage
emptying velocity (LAAV) was lower in recurrence group (allP <0.05). (3) A model for predicting the recurrence of
PAF after radiofrequency ablation was constructed in the modeling group.
The equation was: Logit(P) = -3.253 + 0.092 × age + 1.263 × mild MR +
2.325 × moderate MR + 5.111 ×severe MR - 0.113 × LAAV. The area under
the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.889 in modeling group and 0.866 in
verification group, and the difference was not statistically significant
(P >0.05).
Conclusion: The prediction model of atrial fibrillation (AF)
recurrence after CPVA in PAF patients has good predictive efficacy, high
specificity and accuracy.
Key words: atrial fibrillation, prediction model, circular
pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation, echocardiography, recurrence