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\begin{document}

\title{Global desert expansion over the 21st century: patterns, predictors and
signals}



\author[1]{Shuyao Wu}%
\author[2]{Laibao Liu}%
\author[3]{Delong Li}%
\author[1]{Wentao Zhang}%
\author[1]{Kaidi Liu}%
\author[4]{Jiashu Shen}%
\author[1]{Linbo Zhang}%
\affil[1]{Shandong University}%
\affil[2]{ETH Zürich}%
\affil[3]{Southern University of Science and Technology}%
\affil[4]{Peking University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Desert expansions can cause tremendous losses to human well-being.
However, the process of shifting from the non-desert state to the desert
state, a representation of a system regime shift, remains unclear on the
global scale. Clarifying the underpinning pattern, predictors and
signals of this process is of great value in advancing understanding of
both ecosystem resilience and sustainable developments. Here, we combine
the climate classification map and long-term observational land cover
data to assess the global desert distribution and its changes from 2000
to 2019. The identified desert areas cover approximately 7.53\% of the
global land in the past two decades. Only approximately 16.03\% of these
deserts shows expanding trends, especially in countries such as Tunisia,
Tajikistan and Peru. After assessing 26 climatic, ecological and
socioeconomic factors that could potentially modify desert expansion
rates, vegetation cover diversity was identified as the strongest
predictor in both hot and cold deserts, followed by cattle density in
hot deserts and desert size in cold deserts. In addition, pronounced
high fluctuation in satellite vegetation productivity and flickering
between land cover states could serve as two signals for desert
conversion and fast expansion, respectively. Our results provide not
only a long-term overview of global desert changing patterns but also
possible guidance for constraining desert expansion.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{Title} : Global desert expansion over the
21\textsuperscript{st}century: patterns, predictors and signals

\textbf{Running Head} : Global desert expansion analysis from 2000 to
2019

\textbf{Authors} : Shuyao Wu\textsuperscript{1,2*}, Laibao
Liu\textsuperscript{3}, Delong Li\textsuperscript{4}, Wentao
Zhang\textsuperscript{1,2}, Kaidu Liu\textsuperscript{1,2}, Jiashu
Shen\textsuperscript{5,6}, Linbo Zhang\textsuperscript{1,2*}

\textbf{Authors} \textbf{affiliations} :

\textsuperscript{1} Center for Yellow River Ecosystem Products, Shandong
University, Qingdao, Shandong 266237, China

\textsuperscript{2} Qingdao Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences,
Shandong University, Qingdao, Shandong 266237, China

\textsuperscript{3} Department of Environmental System Science, ETH
Z\selectlanguage{ngerman}ürich, Zürich, Switzerland

\textsuperscript{4} School of Environmental Science and Engineering,
Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China

\textsuperscript{5} College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking
University, Beijing 100871, China

\textsuperscript{6} Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the
Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

\textbf{* Corresponding to} :

wushuyao@email.sdu.edu.cn (Shuyao Wu)

zhanglb@sdu.edu.cn (Linbo Zhang)

\textbf{Email addresses} :

wushuyao@email.sdu.edu.cn (Shuyao Wu)

laibao.liu@env.ethz.ch (Laibao Liu)

lidl3@sustech.edu.cn (Delong Li)

zhangwt@sdu.edu.cn (Wentao Zhang)

liukaidi@sdu.edu.cn (Kaidi Liu)

jiashu\_shen@pku.edu.cn (Jiashu Shen)

zhanglb@sdu.edu.cn (Linbo Zhang)

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Abstract.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/461774/articles/557384-global-desert-expansion-over-the-21st-century-patterns-predictors-and-signals}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Manuscript.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/461774/articles/557384-global-desert-expansion-over-the-21st-century-patterns-predictors-and-signals}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Figures.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/461774/articles/557384-global-desert-expansion-over-the-21st-century-patterns-predictors-and-signals}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`References.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/461774/articles/557384-global-desert-expansion-over-the-21st-century-patterns-predictors-and-signals}

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\end{document}

