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\begin{document}

\title{Diagnosing restoration trajectories using demographic modeling and
modern coexistence theory}



\author[1]{Lina Aoyama}%
\author[2]{Lauren Shoemaker}%
\author[3]{Benjamin Gilbert}%
\author[4]{Sharon Collinge}%
\author[5]{Akasha Faist}%
\author[6]{Nancy Shackelford}%
\author[7]{Vicky Temperton}%
\author[8]{Gyorgy Barabas}%
\author[9]{Loralee Larios}%
\author[10]{Emma Ladouceur}%
\author[11]{Oscar Godoy}%
\author[12]{Catherine Bowler}%
\author[1]{Lauren Hallett}%
\affil[1]{University of Oregon}%
\affil[2]{University of Wyoming}%
\affil[3]{University of Toronto}%
\affil[4]{University of Colorado Boulder}%
\affil[5]{New Mexico State University}%
\affil[6]{University of Victoria}%
\affil[7]{Leuphana Universitat Luneburg}%
\affil[8]{Linkopings universitet}%
\affil[9]{University of California Riverside}%
\affil[10]{German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig}%
\affil[11]{Universidad de Cadiz Campus de Puerto Real}%
\affil[12]{The University of Queensland - Saint Lucia Campus}%


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  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Restoration success is often measured by comparing target species
abundance between restored and reference populations. Abundance may
poorly predict long-term success, however, because seed addition may
initially inflate restored population abundances, and reference
population abundances may fluctuate with environmental variation. A
demographic approach, informed by modern coexistence theory, may allow
for more accurate diagnosis of restoration trajectories. We modeled
population dynamics of an endangered plant (\emph{Lasthenia conjugens})
in restored vernal pools and compared them to reference populations over
18 years (2000-2017). Model estimates of \emph{L. conjugens} growth
rates were better predictors of long-term trends than observed
abundances. Although populations fluctuated in reference pools, annual
rainfall variability acted as a stabilizing factor for \emph{L.
conjugens}. In restored pools however, invasive grasses and associated
litter accumulation overrode the benefits of environmental variability.
Our approach improves assessment of restoration outcomes and indicates
when management actions, such as grass removal, will improve future
trajectories.%
\end{abstract}%



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