4 Conclusions
The research provides a synthetical scientometric review for uncertainty
analysis in
hydrologic
simulaation and water resources system on account of bibliographic data.
In detail, the research was conducted from various orientations:
characteristics of publications, cooperation of countries/territories
and institutions, co-citation of schloars and references, co-occurrence
of topics and keywords. Thus, some valuable insights are acquired for
the current stage.
Over the past three decades, there have been approximately 2020
publications related to the uncertainty in the hydrological system, and
the number has increased steadily, which indicates that this field is
receiving increasing attention from scholars. Generally, the USA, China,
Canada, Australia, and Germany were the first five prolific countries,
at the same time, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal
University, University of Regina, North China Electric Power University,
and Texas A&M University were the first five prolific institutions in
this related field. The USA contributed greatly to the publications and
cooperated with most countries/territories. The Chinese Academy of
Sciences was the leading institution and had a relatively intimate
relationship with other institutions.
Most studies were published in the representative journals in this
field, such as the Journal of Hydrology and Water Resources Research.
Arnold, Beven, and Huang were the representative scholars who made
outstanding contributions to the field of uncertainty in hydrologic
simulation and water resources management.
Research on the uncertainty in hydrologic simulation and water resources
management covered broad subjects, such as environmental science,
ecology, geology, mathematics, and chemistry. Through the keyword
analysis, Uncertainty, Hydrological Simulation, Climate Change,
Calibration, and Optimization were the hotspots in the research domain.
Research on water quality and sensitivity analysis have been proved new
topics over the years. By evaluating the co-cited network, the primary
study field was determined to be hydrological simulations using the SWAT
model, and this topic is becoming more and more mature.
In
conclusion, this study field for the uncertainty in hydrologic
simulation and water resources management is still a research front, and
it needs to be further explored and improved in the following aspects.
(i) The uncertainty mainly exists in the hydrologic model, further
exploration of structure, parameters, and data acquisition can enhance
the reliability of hydrologic prediction and decision-making. (ii) The
uncertainty analysis of hydrological systems is insufficient to study
the water-transforming pattern within atmospheric water, surface water,
and groundwater included in the hydrological cycle, and new methods
should be used to explore each link of the eco-hydrological process.
(iii) As the single method was unable to meet the study of the
uncertainty in the hydrological system, future research will likely
focus on the establishment of coupled uncertainty analysis methods for
synthetical uncertainty in hydrological model application and
management. The research provides a broad perspective on uncertain study
for hydrologic simulation and management. Furthermore, this study helps
scholars identify influential trends and build new perspectives in the
field. As a result, the scientific structure and frontiers of this
research field of uncertainty in hydrological simulation and management
can be extracted and generalized.