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\begin{document}

\title{Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6
unravelled}



\author[1]{Zebedee R.J. Nicholls}%
\author[1]{Malte Alexander Meinshausen}%
\author[2]{Jared Lewis}%
\author[3]{Christopher J Smith}%
\author[3]{Piers Forster}%
\author[4]{Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt}%
\author[5]{Joeri Rogelj}%
\author[6]{Jarmo Kikstra}%
\author[6]{keywan Riahi}%
\author[7]{Edward Anthony Byers}%
\affil[1]{University of Melbourne}%
\affil[2]{Climate Resource}%
\affil[3]{University of Leeds}%
\affil[4]{Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO)}%
\affil[5]{Imperial College London}%
\affil[6]{IIASA}%
\affil[7]{International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and
2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C
or 2C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment,
such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
(SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result
of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor:
the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming
implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using
AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1C, with
projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due
to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical
warming between the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and AR6, and a
reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the
emulators' response to emissions and the underlying assessment.%
\end{abstract}%



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