3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Case fatality rate (CFR), also known as case fatality risk, is an
epidemiological term which is used to describe a disease severity. CFR
is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a particular disease
by the number of confirmed diagnosed cases in a specific duration.
Hence, CFR certainty is highly affected by the accuracy of the reports
provided by the corresponding national authorities. CFR is also varying
substantially among different populations. As mentioned, many factors,
including age and gender distribution, specific genetic profile, as well
as the economic power of a particular community, which can both
directly and indirectly influence the health system measures, can affect
the CFR data. Considering the fact that the CFR reflects the
hospitalization and lockdown requirements (especially in outbreaks,
epidemics, and pandemics), this uncertainty is not desirable since
having precise information about the CFR data is very critical to
determine a disease burden in a country
(Backhaus et al., 2016;
Battegay et al., 2020;
Rajgor, Lee, Archuleta, Bagdasarian, &
Quek, 2020; S. Ruan, 2020).
Recently, Stafford published an article in the British Medical Journal
(BMJ) to discuss the low COVID-19-associated mortality rate of Germany
among the European countries. The author has discussed the statistics
using the CFR data. This report reflects some other features and
determinants that can affect the CFR data among countries. Stafford
gathered the information until April 2 and showed that although at that
time Germany was suffering from the highest number of COVID-19 infection
(73533 confirmed cases), its COVID-19-related fatality rate (1.2%) was
remarkably lower than those of other European countries such as Italy
(11.9%), Spain (9%), Netherlands (8.6%), the U.K. (8%), and France
(7.1%). According to Stafford, this difference can be attributed to the
Germany’s early and high level of testing, which was conducted in a
large population. Speed of action in disease control, lockdowns, and
quarantine policies are mentioned as the other determinants involved in
the low fatality rate in Germany
(Stafford, 2020). These findings were
also confirmed in our study. According to Table 1, at the time of this
writing, Germany was ranked fifth regarding the number of total
confirmed cases (154999), while this country was ranked eighth based on
the CFR values (CFR: 3.72%).
The long incubation period of the COVID-19 is another factor that some
researchers believe in its related impact on the CFR data. This has
inspired debates in the scientific literature. For example, Baud et al.
questioned the accuracy and usability of the COVID-19 CFR values. They
argued that for any given duration, the dead patients were infected
earlier, with a time-lag bias of about 14 days, which was not included
in the calculation of the CFR values (Baud
et al., 2020). This argument was strictly rejected by Lipsitch
(Lipsitch, 2020) and corrected by
Spychalski and Kim (Kim & Goel, 2020;
Spychalski, Blazynska-Spychalska, &
Kobiela, 2020).
At the time of this writing (April 25, 2020), 2864370 confirmed cases
and 199507 deaths from COVID-19 were reported worldwide (i.e., CFR value
of 6.96%). We know that this is a rough estimation since the CFR values
vary from country to country, mainly due to the national and regional
differences in the health care and political systems, and variations in
the prevention, control, treatment, and mitigation policies (Fig. 1)
(S. Ruan, 2020). The CFR values for the
Middle East and the top ten most affected countries on April 25, 2020
are presented in Table 1. As can be seen in this table, France has the
highest CFR value (13.92%) for the COVID-19 infection,followed by the
U.K.) CFR:13.60%) and Italy (CFR: 13.46%), respectively. However,
regarding the total confirmed cases, these three countries are placed in
the fourth, sixth, and third places.
Among the top ten most affected countries, the U.S. is the leading
country regarding the total confirmed cases (925231), although its CFR
(5.64%) is not too high in comparison with the world’s record (CFR:
6.96%) and many other countries. Until now, New York City (N.Y.C.) is
known as the most affected region in the U.S.. Recently, Bashir et al.
described a strong correlation between some climate indicators and the
outbreak of COVID-19 in N.Y.C. They showed that air quality and average
temperature could significantly affect the mortality rate among the
N.Y.C. citizens, while the minimum temperature and also air quality
affected the total number of confirmed cases. Hence, they recommended
that the green environment support policies can help to fight the
COVID-19 (Bashir et al., 2020). At
present, there is not sufficient data to make a more general conclusion
based on our observations, but we can mention a report published by Tsai
and Wilson. In a comment by Tsai and Wilson, the authors reported the
impact of the sizable population of homeless people who are living in
North America. They believed that these homeless people could be
efficiently involved in the transmission of the COVID-19 all over the
country, which would result in an increased number of infected people
(Tsai & Wilson, 2020).
Until the time of this writing, the highest number of COVID-19 CFR was
recorded for France, although in terms of the total confirmed cases,
this country was ranked fourth in the list of the top ten most affected
countries (Table 1). The accuracy of these kinds of estimations for the
COVID-19 in France has also been questioned in a research by Boëlle et
al. The authors focused on the co-incidence of Influenza A (H1N1),
influenza B, and COVID-19 in France. They believed that this
concurrencey had affected the accurate identification of the COVID-19
casesin this country (Boëlle et al.,
2020). In another research by Ghanchi, the author focused on the
psychosocial and political factors which might result in a severe
outbreak in France. According to Ghanchi, although France was the third
European country that called for a nation-wide controlling policy
against COVID-19, discordance between the national authorities and
public perception weakened the effectiveness of the government and
health system measures. The author also believed that this discordancy,
along with populist opinions and local municipal elections exacerbated
the inefficiency of the government measures in this country
(Ghanchi, 2020).
After France, among the top ten affected countries, the U.K. was placed
in the second position (Table 1) regarding the CFR values. There are
several reports that have focused on the mathematical modeling of the
COVID-19 spread in the U.K. Many of these reports have highlighted the
efficacy of contact tracing and rigorous social distancing in preventing
an uncontrollable outbreak of the COVID-19 in this country
(Alwan et al., 2020;
Ferguson et al., 2020;
Keeling, Hollingsworth, & Read, 2020).
In a correspondence published by Alwan et al., the authors referred to
the study of Remuzzi and Remuzzi in which a comparison between the
hospital beds per 1000 population indicated that the U.K. capacity was
lower than Italy, France, and Germany. Alwan et al. stated that this
report showed that more rigorous policies had to be applied to the U.K.
(Alwan et al., 2020;
Remuzzi & Remuzzi, 2020), while the U.K.
stopped its social distancing and rigorous contact tracing strategies in
the early days of the epidemic (Pollock,
Roderick, Cheng, & Pankhania, 2020). An enormouly negative mental
health impact of these policies on the U.K. inhabitants may be one of
the dozens of reasons (Williams, Armitage,
Tampe, & Dienes, 2020). At the time of this writing, the rigorous
controlling policies were retaken after the explosion of the confirmed
cases.
In the list of the top ten most affected countries, Italy was ranked
third both in terms of the total number of the confirmed deaths and the
CFR value (Table 1). In a study by Rubino et al., the authors compared
the fatality rates between Italy and China. They raised doubts about the
noticeable difference in the CFR values between these two countries.
Like many other researchers (Lazzerini &
Putoto, 2020), Rubino et al. believe that the CFR values are not
reliable enough to make a definite conclusion. They mainly questioned
the effect of the testing quality and quantity on the CFR data, which
could be an essential source of uncertainty in the CFR values. As an
example, they noticed the shortage of nasopharyngeal swabs in Italy in
comparison with China. Another interesting point mentioned in the
research of Rubino et al. is comparison of the total confirmed deaths
between China and Italy. They believe that although the CFR values are
not reliable, we can infer much more supporting information based on the
total confirmed deaths. Similar to our research, they reported that the
total number of confirmed deaths was also higher in Italy than many
other countries. Rubino et al. believed that the demographic features of
Italy could explain this observation since Italy has one of the oldest
populations in the world, which is more susceptible to COVID-19-related
death (Rubino, Kelvin, Bermejo-Martin, &
Kelvin, 2020).
According to the Table 1, Spain is the second most affected country in
the world and is ranked first given the DR and the CDR values.
Perez-Bermejo et al. discussed the fast, unpredictable territorial
expansion of the COVID-19 in the second week of a nation-wide isolation.
They noticed the astounding doubling of the death toll, which occurred
just in three days. They stated that inefficient governmental
intervention, numerous mass demonstrations, and the high number of
Italian travelers to Spain (during the golden time for fighting the
disease outbreak) were the major causes of such a territorial expansion
of COVID-19 in Spain (Perez-Bermejo &
Murillo-Llorente, 2020).
In the case of the last country of the top ten most affected list
(Russia), the lowest CFR value (0.09%) along with the low RR value
(8.11 %), is drawing the attention. The low CFR value of Russia has
also previously been reported by Jouzdani
(Jouzdani, 2020). In another study by
Yuan et al. on April 9, 2020, which was based on the statistical
analysis of the daily reports of confirmed cases, Russia was introduced
as a country in which no clear perspective coulds be deemed about the
state of its COVID-19 control (Yuan, Di,
Gu, Qian, & Qian, 2020). We could not find any documentation to
directly explain the low recovery rate of the COVID-19 in Russia,
although there are a few general reports on the recovery duration of the
COVID-19. For example, Xu et al. described some of the host factors
which can affect the SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding and hence influence the
duration of the disease detection as well as its clearance. This study
assessed and discussed, the effect of sex, age, hypertension, severe
illness background, delayed hospital admission, corticosteroid
treatment, and invasive mechanical ventilation on the SARS-CoV-2 RNA
shedding (Xu et al., 2020).
Among the Middle East countries (Table 1, Figure 1 b), given the CFR
values, Egypt (CFR: 7.18), Syria (CFR: 7.14), and Iran (CFR: 6.32 ) took
the first three positions, respectively. Hence, the top three CFR values
of the Middle East are higher than the U.S. (CFR: 5.64), Germany (CFR:
3.72), China (CFR: 5.59), and Russia (CFR: 0.90). On the other hand,
Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia (with 104912, 88194, 15103 total
confirmed cases, respectively) are the top three most affected countries
in this region. According to the total number of confirmed cases, Yemen
and Syria (one and forty-two case, respectively) are placed at the
bottom of the list, with a noticeable gap with the rest (Table 1); this
may reflect a low testing capacity for these two war-torn countries.
The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) is known as the first country,
affected by the COVID-19 in the Middle East. The first confirmed case of
the U.A.E. was reported on January 29, 2020. Sixteen days later, on
February 19, 2020, Iran announced its first report of the infection,
when two persons in Qom city (which is the seventh-largest metropolis of
Iran located near the capital, Tehran) were diagnosed with COVID-19.
Soon after, until April 19, 2020 (when Turkey’s COVID-19 cases
overtook Iran), Iran was known as the epicenter of the COVID-19 in
the Middle East (Aminian, Safari,
Razeghian-Jahromi, Ghorbani, & Delaney, 2020;
Zhuang et al., 2020). During this time,
several countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait,
New Zealand, Canada, and India reported that they have discovered the
COVID-19 infection among travelers from Iran. Until March 2, 2020, Iran
also kept the second position of the world’s list of COVID-19
confirmed cases after China (Costa, 2020;
Gabutti, d’Anchera, Sandri, Savio, &
Stefanati, 2020; Zhuang et al., 2020).
On April 25, 2020, 89328 confirmed cases and 5650 deaths of COVID-19
were reported by Iran. These data correspond to the CFR value of 6.32%.
Previously, other researches have also reported the CFR values of
COVID-19 for Iran. Among them is the report of Hoseinpour Dehkordi, who
calculated and used CFR data to compare the policies and behaviors of
some different countries in combating the COVID-19. On March 3, 2020,
(the time of the Hoseinpour Dehkordi’s report), the CFR of COVID-19
for Iran was around 4.4% (Hoseinpour
Dehkordi, Alizadeh, Derakhshan, Babazadeh, & Jahandideh, 2020), which
is lower than today’s value (6.32%). Such an increase is very
questionable and must be discussed deeply. This increase in the CFR
values has also been reported for many other countries. About two mounts
ago, many researchers believed that the actual CFR value for COVID-19
was about 2-3%, which is far from today’s reality. At that time, any
CFR values which were reported higher than 2-3% were attributed to the
low testing capacity as well as testing reliability in the early days of
the disease, which comes with excessive deaths vs. confirmed cases.
Due to the tough sanctions against Iran, any study on the spread of the
COVID-19 in this country can be of particular interest. Hence, although
Iran’s health system is among the most resilient in the Middle East,
it has been affected considerably by these sanctions and their
associated total economic lockdown. The politically based economic
collapse in Iran has directly or indirectly affected all aspects of the
health measures (from prevention to treatment), applicability of the
nation-wide mitigation policies, and inter-country travel restrictions.
This fact can somehow explain the relatively high fatality rate in Iran
(Raoofi, Takian, Olyaeemanesh, Haghighi,
& Aarabi, 2020; Takian, Raoofi, &
Kazempour-Ardebili, 2020). Like many other countries, the reliability
of the data reported on the COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths is
questioned by some researchers (A. Tuite
et al., 2020; Zhuang et al., 2020). For
example, Imai et al. believed that the number of confirmed cases might
be under-reported in the early days of the outbreak in this country due
to the shortage of diagnostic kits (Imai,
Dorigatti, Cori, Riley, & Ferguson, 2020). There are also some other
reports (e.g., the report of Mounesan et al.) published on the strength
of Iran’s health system despite the pressure of the U.S. sanctions
(Mounesan, Eybpoosh, Haghdoost, Moradi, &
Mostafavi, 2020). An outstanding opportunity for Iran to fight the
CIVID-19 spread was the coincidence of Iran’s early days of the
outbreak with the Persian’ new year holiday (Nowruz), which began on
March 20, 2020 and helped the government in the nation wide isolation.
It seems that all these factors have contributed to the declining rates
of total confirmed cases as well as total confirmed deaths in Iran,
happening at the time of this writing.
At the time of this writing, Turkey (the Eurasian country of the Middle
East) was ranked first among the Middle Eastern countries regarding the
the total number of confirmed cases (104912); although its CFR value
(2.48%) was lower than Egypt (7.18%), Syria (7.14%), Iran (6.32%),
Iraq (5.04%), and Lebanon (3.16%). The first case of infection for
this country was reported on March 11, 2020, i.e., twenty-one days after
Iran’s announcement of the disease on February 19, 2020 (Table 1).
Studing the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey also may be interesting because
of its Mediterranean culture and the high number of tourists traveling
to this country. Turkey is the sixth largest tourist destination in the
world. It is also one of Iran’s neighbors which is introduced as a
critically infected country in the Middle East
(Khan & Karataş, 2020). Hence, strict
international control policies seem to be more crucial for this country
to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic
(PETERSEN & GÖKENGİN, 2020). The
variable climate of Turkey encouraged Şahin to investigate the effect of
meteorological parameters on the spread of COVID-19 in this country.
According to Şahin, there is a strongly positive correlation between the
temperature, wind speed, and infection rate of COVID-19
(Şahin, 2020). Similar findings have also
been reported by other researchers from different countries around the
world (Chen et al., 2020;
Ma et al., 2020;
Wang et al., 2020).
Saudi Arabia (the largest country of the Middle East) was the third most
affected country according to the total confirmed cases of the COVID-19
(15102) at the time of this writing. The relatively low DR (0.04%) and
CDR (0.04%) values for this country are worth noting. There are two
critical points about the COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia. First,
before the COVID-19 outbreak, this country was plagued by another
respiratory syndrome known as the Middle East respiratory syndrome or
MERS, which has continued untill now. The pathogen of the MERS
(MERS-CoV) is very similar to that of the newly emerged COVID-19
(SARS-CoV-2); hence, these two infections have similar presentations,
which bring about a more challenging situation for the health systems.
Today, the majority of the MERS confirmed cases are reported in Saudi
Arabia, while the number of this infected cases is continually growing
due to lack of appropriate vaccination strategies
(Barry, Al Amri, & Memish, 2020;
Degnah et al., 2020;
Mohamed, Aleanizy, Alqahtani, Alanazi, &
Mohamed, 2020). The second point is the religious mass gathering
events, which is very prominent in the Muslim countries. The holiest
Muslim shrine (Kaaba) is located in Mecca, Saudi Arabia; hence many
Muslims traveling to this country. Saudi Arabia is also known for the
largest annual religious mass gathering in the world. Thus, this
religious mass gathering is considered as another challenge for Saudi
Arabia to fight against the new COVID-19 outbreak
(Al-Tawfiq & Memish, 2020).
In contrast to Russia (among the top ten most affected countries), Egypt
(the most populous country of the Middle East) shows relatively high
values for both CFR and RR among the Middle East countries (Table 1).
Although more specific research must be performed to explain this
observation, again, we believe that the study of Xu et al. can
provide some clues to explain the observations in Egypt
(Xu et al., 2020). Exploring the data for
the COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt is interesting since this country is the
only African country in the Middle East, the first African country
reported for COVID-19, and according to the published reports, its
economy has been dramatically affected by the new outbreak
(Breisinger, Abdelatif, Raouf, & Wiebelt,
2020; A. R. Tuite et al., 2020).
According to Ardovini, a lack of suitable preparation in many states of
Egypt and the complicated military dominance in Egypt (which began in
1952) have made the control of the new outbreak challenging for this
country (Woertz, 2020).
Until April 25, 2020, Syria has reported only forty-two confirmed cases,
three confirmed deaths, and six recovered persons. These data correspond
to the almost zero values for both DR and CDR, which is questionable and
dubious. Recently, Gharibah and Mehchy published an article focusing on
the Syria’s healthcare capacity in response to fight against the
COVID-19 outbreak. They believe that the health system of Syria is very
fragile due to the long-term civil war. They also think that the
outbreak of the COVID-19 has begun before the first officail
announcement of the government (Gharibah
& Mehchy, 2020). Published reports have also described a similar
situation for Yemen (Daw, 2020a) (with
only one confirmed case who recovered until April 25, 2020).
Accordingly, the researchers warn that the situation of these two
countries not only can result in a disastrous condition for their
citizens but also can exert a severe impact on their neighboring
countries (Daw, 2020a,
2020b).
At the time of our investigation, we find that Jordan (RR: 73.92%) and
Iraq (RR: 70.49%) had recorded for the highest RR and relatively low DR
and CDR values among the Middle Eastern countries. (Table 1). Iraq is
among the countries enormously affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in its
neighbor, Iran. It is worth noting that, like Saudi Arabia, Jordan has
been also under the pressure of the MERS outbreak at the time of the new
COVID-19 spread (Memish, Perlman, Van
Kerkhove, & Zumla, 2020). However, unfortunately, we could not find
any supporting document to describe our observation on the high recovery
rate of the COVID-19 in these two countries.
As mentioned in the method section, DR is defined asthe ratio of the
number of confirmed cases to the total size of a population. It is worth
mentioning that the DR is not considered in the CFR calculation. Hence,
although CFR is an essential epidemiologic term for evaluating the
disease burden and adopting suitable health measures, it must be
considered along with the DR (Hadler et
al., 2010). For the COVID-19, this concept has been discussed in a
report by Elisabeth Mahase. Given the official reports until February
17, 2020, Mahase compared the lethality of the COVID-19 (fatality rate
2%) with SARS (fatality rate 10%) and MERS (fatality rate 34%).
Comparision of the fatality rates of these three diseases shows that the
COVID-19 is not as lethal as either SARS or MERS, but the concern is the
high DR of COVID-19. As Mahase noticed, on February 17, 2020, the
number of COVID-19 deaths exceded both SARS and MERS (1871 and 1632,
respectively). However, such a lethality for COVID-19 is related to the
high DR of this new disease (Mahase,
2020). Accordingly, in the present study, we also tried to cover this
concept while discussing the CFR values in the text.