4.3 Impacts of plans, policies, practices and technologies based
on ZT/CA and iCLF-CA (2030 Forecast)
In terms of increasing area, as a result of plans and policies in
Brazil, ZT/CA showed a huge growth since 1990; however, from 2012 the
increase becomes more conservative, year after year (Figure 2). The
possible explosion in the area of ZT/CA in the 90’s could be associated
with the intensity of sustainability global discussions at those times.
At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio 92)
in 1992, Brazil had a significant presence in the environmental
discussions and showed a commitment to different articulations and
debates toward adoption of the sustainable technologies. However,
considering scenarios 2 and 3, through public and private incentives and
intensification of land use, the forecast in Figure 2A might be
possible. Yet, an exponential growth would not be expected, but a
constant positive growth until 2030. On the other hand, considering the
forecasts in Figure 2B, the scenario 1 could be more appropriate when
the increase of ZT/CA is based on GHG’s mitigation and SOC sequestration
purposes and might depend on acceptance by society and policymakers.
This scenario could flatten the curve of ZT/CA growth and the forecast
shown in Figure 2B might be possible.
The impacts of plans and policies for the iCLF management system, based
on forecasts with the three scenarios, predict for the year 2030 that
95% of the iCLF-CA area will be between 22.99 and 28.74 million
hectares. Such forecast results and the known data growth can contribute
to the idea that iCLF is a technology in expansion, with great potential
at a continental-scale level and it is growing fast. The ease of
combinations between land management systems, the highest productivity
by hectare and the adaptability in different environments, turns the
iCLF-CA technology to be a sure bet for the future sustainable
development of agriculture. Taken in account that the principal
characteristic of iCLF is the variety of components and plant species
that could be used in the system, this increase in diversity is aligned
with most ecological theories (Grime, 1998; Craven et al., 2018; da Luz
et al., 2019; Jonsson et al., 2019; Geneletti, Scolozzi, and Esmail,
2018). This has a high relevance in terms of conservation agriculture,
due to the role of biodiversity increasing for improvements of carbon
storage, nutrient cycling, soil preservation, and climate change; while
maintaining food and fiber productivity for the society.