3.2.2 iCLF-CA 2030 forecasting
The scenarios elaborated to predict the increase in iCLF-CA area in
Brazil from 2016 to 2030 are illustrated in the Figure 3. The Scenario 1
had a rate of iCLF-CA area increase of 0.72 million hectares per year.
Therefore, based on the data for the year 2015 (area of 11.47 million
ha) the prediction for 2030 in the Scenario 1 is of 22.27 million
hectares of lands with the system. The Scenario 2 had a rate of 0.96
million hectares per year, which is close to the annual increment of
0.97 million hectares reported by ABC Plan ( Cordeiro et al.,
2015), considering an ICLF-CA expansion area of 5.83 million hectares
from 2010 to 2016. Therefore, based also on the data of 2015, the
prediction for Scenario 2 is of 25.87.07 million hectares in 2030.
Scenario 3 had the higher annual growth rate (1.19 million hectares);
thus, the predicted value for 2030 is of 29.32 million hectares of
ICLF-CA.