2.4 Estimates of the increase in the area of iCLF-CA in Brazil
up to the year 2030
Estimations were made from data in the ICLF Network, by Kieffmann Group
(2016), the numbers show that iCLF-CA increased steadily in Brazil since
2005 and was already largely adopted, with an area of 11.47 million ha,
in 2015. According to the report, in the period between 2005 and 2015/16
there was a twofold growth rate of iCLF-CA adoption; were from 2005 to
2010 the area increased at a regular rate and from 2011 to 2015 there
was a greater growth rate. Here, we used the differences in slope among
periods and three simple linear models were used to calculate the
increase in the iCLF-CA area for 2030. For the first model (Scenario1),
we used the average rate considering the period from 2005 to 2010. In
the second model (Scenario 2) we used the average rate of the entire
period, which is, 2005 to 2015. Finally, for the third model (Scenario
3) we used the average rate of the period from 2010 to 2015. Using these
three models we should capture all possible growth for the area of
iCLF-CA in Brazil. Therefore, we assume a linear growth for iCLF-CA over
the years.