4.3 Impacts of plans, policies, practices and technologies based on ZT/CA and iCLF-CA (2030 Forecast)
In terms of increasing area, as a result of plans and policies in Brazil, ZT/CA showed a huge growth since 1990; however, from 2012 the increase becomes more conservative, year after year (Figure 2). The possible explosion in the area of ZT/CA in the 90’s could be associated with the intensity of sustainability global discussions at those times. At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio 92) in 1992, Brazil had a significant presence in the environmental discussions and showed a commitment to different articulations and debates toward adoption of the sustainable technologies. However, considering scenarios 2 and 3, through public and private incentives and intensification of land use, the forecast in Figure 2A might be possible. Yet, an exponential growth would not be expected, but a constant positive growth until 2030. On the other hand, considering the forecasts in Figure 2B, the scenario 1 could be more appropriate when the increase of ZT/CA is based on GHG’s mitigation and SOC sequestration purposes and might depend on acceptance by society and policymakers. This scenario could flatten the curve of ZT/CA growth and the forecast shown in Figure 2B might be possible.
The impacts of plans and policies for the iCLF management system, based on forecasts with the three scenarios, predict for the year 2030 that 95% of the iCLF-CA area will be between 22.99 and 28.74 million hectares. Such forecast results and the known data growth can contribute to the idea that iCLF is a technology in expansion, with great potential at a continental-scale level and it is growing fast. The ease of combinations between land management systems, the highest productivity by hectare and the adaptability in different environments, turns the iCLF-CA technology to be a sure bet for the future sustainable development of agriculture. Taken in account that the principal characteristic of iCLF is the variety of components and plant species that could be used in the system, this increase in diversity is aligned with most ecological theories (Grime, 1998; Craven et al., 2018; da Luz et al., 2019; Jonsson et al., 2019; Geneletti, Scolozzi, and Esmail, 2018). This has a high relevance in terms of conservation agriculture, due to the role of biodiversity increasing for improvements of carbon storage, nutrient cycling, soil preservation, and climate change; while maintaining food and fiber productivity for the society.