Fig. 2. (a)The habitat change in future and (b) the statistics of habitat change in province
Prediction models for future scenarios show the decrease of suitable regions (Bay et al., 2018). The area most prone to qualitative change in future is the boundary zone with low altitude between suitable and unsuitable areas. The most loss of habitat is mainly located in the southern China, including the Hunan province, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guangdong province. Hunan will be the province with highest habitat loss in future with losing 26,361 \(\text{km}^{2}\) accounting for 20.74% of the current total habitat area in Hunan. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region will loss 19767\(\text{km}^{2}\) accounting for 18.50% of the current total habitat area in Guangxi. Guangdong province will loss 12985\(\text{km}^{2}\) accounting for 11.78% of the current total habitat area in Guangdong. The abatement of habitat is common in China except some places (Fig.2). The most gain of habitat is located in the southeast China, including Jiangsu province, Zhejiang province and Shandong province. The habitat area will rise 5396\(\ \text{km}^{2}\) in Jiangsu province, 3460\(\ \text{km}^{2}\) in Zhejiang province and 2970\(\ \text{km}^{2}\) in Shandong province.
In this study, the research content of 7 orders of migratory birds revealed an obvious bias trend in the population centroid of habitat. In future climate scenarios, the entire population centroid will moved to the northeast, and all the migratory birds will move from their potential habitats to higher altitudes (Pacifici et al., 2017). The mean suitability is shown the decline in future (Fig.S3).
Table 3. The shift situation of migratory birds.