Abstract: Climate-change-induced habitat loss will be the
largest global threat to biodiversity. Here, we projected species
turnover and loss for Chinese tree species under four climate change
scenarios. The results show that many trees will be seriously
threatened. On average across climate scenarios, about 57% or 23% of
the trees would be vulnerable or threatened under no migration
assumption or universal migration by 2070, respectively. Projection of
species loss and turnover in grid cells indicates considerable variation
across climate change scenarios (20%–30% and 40%–65%,
respectively) and across geographical regions (25.4%–58.1% and
40.6%–78.8%, respectively). Notably, local extinction risks for
Chinese trees species may be high; even under the most conservative
situation (lowest emission scenario with universal migration), 18%
trees will still be vulnerable or threatened. We suggest that a further
studying trees adaptation strategy to climate change is required to
ensure the sustainable development of China’s forests.
Keywords: species loss and turnover; projection method; climate
change; species richness; East Asia