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\begin{document}

\title{Global Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for
Background Solar Wind using the Alfv\selectlanguage{ngerman}én Wave Solar Atmosphere Model\selectlanguage{english}}



\author[1,1]{Aniket Jivani}%
\author[1,1]{Nishtha Sachdeva}%
\author[1,1]{Zhenguang Huang}%
\author[1,1]{Yang Chen}%
\author[1,1]{Bart van der Holst}%
\author[1,1]{Ward Manchester}%
\author[1,1]{Daniel Iong}%
\author[1,1]{Hongfan Chen}%
\author[1,1]{Shasha Zou}%
\author[1,1]{Xun Huan}%
\author[1,1]{Gabor Toth}%
\affil[1]{University of Michigan}%


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  \date{June 16, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Modeling the impact of space weather events such as coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) is crucial to protecting critical infrastructure. The
Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) is a state-of-the-art framework
that offers full Sun-to-Earth simulations by computing the background
solar wind, CME propagation and magnetospheric impact. However, reliable
long-term predictions of CME events require uncertainty quantification
(UQ) and data assimilation (DA). We take the first steps by performing
global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and UQ for background solar wind
simulations produced by the Alfv\selectlanguage{ngerman}én Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM)
for two Carrington rotations: CR2152 (solar maximum) and CR2208 (solar
minimum). We conduct GSA by computing Sobol indices that quantify
contributions from model parameter uncertainty to the variance of solar
wind speed and density at 1 au, both crucial quantities for CME
propagation and strength. Sobol indices also allow us to rank and retain
only the most important parameters, which aids in the construction of
smaller ensembles for the reduced-dimension parameter space. We present
an efficient procedure for computing the Sobol indices using polynomial
chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates and space-filling designs. The PCEs
further enable inexpensive forward UQ. Overall, we identify three
important model parameters: the multiplicative factor applied to the
magnetogram, Poynting flux per magnetic field strength constant used at
the inner boundary, and the coefficient of the perpendicular correlation
length in the turbulent cascade model in AWSoM.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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