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Neural Network model for classification of net CO2 fluxes scenarios in Tapajós Forest, in Amazon
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  • Lucas Bauer,
  • Felipe Almeida,
  • Felipe Moreno,
  • Cauê Pan,
  • Pedro Corrêa,
  • Luciana Rizzo
Lucas Bauer
Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences - Federal University of São Paulo

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Felipe Almeida
Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo
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Felipe Moreno
Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo
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Cauê Pan
Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo
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Pedro Corrêa
Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo
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Luciana Rizzo
Institute of Physics – University of São Paulo
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Abstract

The Amazon rainforest has a great influence on the global energy balance and carbon fluxes, responsible for the net removal of approximately 4 million tons of carbon per year, via photosynthetic activity. Climate change and deforestation have impacts on the carbon budget in Amazonia, transforming CO2 sink areas into sources. Given the complexity of the factors that govern the carbon exchange in the Amazon and its influence on biological processes, the use of Data science strategies can promote a better understanding about the main environmental factors for different scenarios, and also, assist in public policies to mitigate the global warming effects. This study aims to identify the environmental factors that determine the temporal variability of carbon exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere in the Tapajós National Forest, in the Amazon, applying Data Science strategies in an integrated set of environmental data from energy and carbon fluxes and remote sensing data. The specific objective is to assess the influence of a selected set of environmental variables on the variability of carbon exchanges, with the use of an artificial neural networks classification model to identify the variables with great impact on source, sink and neutrality scenarios in Tapajós National Forest. Data Science strategies were applied to an integrated dataset of ground-based carbon flux measurements and remote sensing data, considering the period between 2002 and 2006. An artificial neural network (ANN) classification model was developed to identify the environmental variables with great impact on carbon source, sink and neutrality conditions. The average global score of ANN model was 65%. It was possible to identify the predictor variables with greatest impact to the carbon sink condition: radiation at the top of the atmosphere, sensible and latent energy fluxes and leaf area index. Thus, the ANN model with an ensemble of Data Science strategies can improve a better understanding of variability CO2 fluxes and be a powerful tool to promote new knowledge.