loading page

Projected West Antarctic ocean warming caused by an expansion of the Ross Gyre
  • +2
  • Felipe Gomez-Valdivia,
  • Paul Holland,
  • Antony Siahaan,
  • Pierre Dutrieux,
  • Emma F. Young
Felipe Gomez-Valdivia
British Antarctic Survey

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Paul Holland
British Antarctic Survey
Author Profile
Antony Siahaan
British Antarctic Survey
Author Profile
Pierre Dutrieux
British Antarctic Survey
Author Profile
Emma F. Young
British Antarctic Survey
Author Profile

Abstract

We use the United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyse the dynamics of the Ross Gyre, West Antarctica, under historical and projected climate-change scenarios. During the historical period, the modelled Ross Gyre is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that are in reasonable agreement with observations. The projections exhibit an eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas that starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the eastern Amundsen Sea, a regime change that increases the subsurface shelf temperatures by up to 1.2◦C and is independent of future forcing scenario. The Ross Gyre expansion is generated by a regional surface stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic forcing. If realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.