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Obolodiplosis robiniae Will Infect All Black Locust In Eurasia Under Climate Change
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  • Jiaqiang Zhao,
  • Tai Gao,
  • Jingjing Du,
  • Juan Shi
Jiaqiang Zhao
Beijing Forestry University
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Tai Gao
Zhejiang University
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Jingjing Du
Beijing Forestry University
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Juan Shi
Beijing Forestry University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century and was then spread at an explosive rate. Here, we explore the current and future (in years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21.58°-65.66°N in the Eurasian continent. The total current potential distribution (CPD) area of O. robiniae in Eurasia was 10,896,309.16 km2 , with suitable areas covering a substantial section of Europe. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and the Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14) are the most important bioclimatic variables determining the potential distribution of O. robiniae. The future area suitable for habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend with temperature elevation. The marginally suitable and highly suitable areas would thus increase, whereas the southern appropriate areas would shrink. Under the SSP585 scenario, in 2070, the suitable area of O. robiniae would be the largest, up to 14,696,253.77 km2, which is 34.87% more than the current suitable area. This information would facilitate the provision of early warning on the potential distribution areas of O. robiniae issued by the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.