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Approach to Estimate Current and Future Destabilization Risk to Energy Facilities on Permafrost
  • Jefferson Antwi-Agyei,
  • Alexia Hernandez,
  • Jason Koehn
Jefferson Antwi-Agyei
Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Alexia Hernandez
Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security
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Jason Koehn
Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security
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Abstract

Permafrost is permanently frozen ground that covers over 10% of the Earth’s surface. Many northern regions have extensive infrastructure built on this hard, frozen ground. When permafrost thaws, the ground becomes a softer mix of soil and water, which can cause degradation and damage to critical infrastructure. Permafrost thaw has substantial economic, strategic, and environmental implications. While thawing permafrost due to climate change will affect energy infrastructure in many countries, this work focuses on Russia’s current and planned arctic energy infrastructure. To quantify Russian energy infrastructure locations on permafrost, geospatial data was collected and mapped. Specifically, our analysis focuses on Russian gas and oil terminals and power plants. First, we determined the types of permafrost extents (e.g., continuous, discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated) on which each energy facility lies. Next, to evaluate the infrastructure hazard potential of permafrost thaw, we leveraged an existing analysis by [Karjalainen et al., 2019] in which data on ground conditions were weighted and aggregated to generate low, medium, or high hazard classifications under various greenhouse gas trajectories. For the time frame 2041-2060 and assuming greenhouse gas trajectories consistent with RCP 4.5, most facilities were found to be located in moderate and high hazard zones. A similar analysis was conducted for the years 2060-2081 under various climate conditions. Next, we generated supplemental analysis to define similar hazard classifications under current climatic conditions. The future climate scenario findings are compared with current conditions to identify potential variations in hazard zones, which could heighten infrastructure destabilization. Findings are applied to a targeted case study of the Yamal Peninsula to assess implications for Russia in the areas of energy capacity, foreign investment and supply chains, and future infrastructure construction projects. Citation: Karjalainen, O., Aalto, J., Luoto, M. et al. Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments. Sci Data 6, 190037 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.37