Association of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability with Mid-latitude
Teleconnection in CFSv2
AbstractThis study identifies the role of mid-latitude teleconnection in
determining the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in
the CFSv2 model. Since CFSv2 has been identified as a potential forecast
model for the Indian summer monsoon, it is important to understand the
factors that determine its prediction skills at seasonal timescales.
ENSO is one of the most important factors driving Indian monsoon
variability at seasonal timescales. It is represented realistically in
CFSv2. The model, however, misses associated mid-latitude
teleconnections. We show that the inadequate strength of mid-latitude
teleconnections, especially from the North Atlantic and North-western
Pacific can be the primary reasons for the weaker monsoon variability,
despite strong ENSO-Monsoon relationship in the model.