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NO2 anomalies - economy attribution and rapid climate response
  • Andrey Savtchenko,
  • Mohammad Khayat
Andrey Savtchenko
NASA/GSFC/610.2/ADNET Systems Inc.

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Mohammad Khayat
NASA/GSFC/610.2/ADNET Systems Inc.
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Abstract

Using principal component (PC) analysis of 16 years of monthly series of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on the Aura satellite, we show that it is the third PC (PC3) from the deseasonalized hierarchy of principal modes that is best coupled with the economic indicators. This coupling is positive, i.e. PC3 and economic indicators manifest positive covariance. However, the economic variability can explain only 40% of the information in PC3. Furthermore, this mode by itself explains only 3% of the total deseasonalized NO2 variability. We thus conclude that, while having an unambiguous impact, the economy can be awarded at best third order of importance in the NO2 departures from the seasonal averages. Once we identified PC3 as the NO2 mode that is coupled with the economic variability, we use this mode as an indicator and look for rapid climate adjustments to that part of NO2 variability that we are confident is coupled with the economic variability. We focus on observational data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board of NASA Aqua satellite, decompose series of surface skin temperature and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiances (OLR) into principal components, and identify potential impacts of NO2 PC3 on these climate variables.