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\begin{document}

\title{Historically Consistent and Geodetically Constrained Bayesian Inference
of Megathrust Rheology}



\author[1]{Tobias Köhne}%
\author[1]{Rishav Mallick}%
\author[1]{Théa Ragon}%
\author[1]{Mark Simons}%
\affil[1]{Affiliation not available}%


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  \date{June 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Understanding the buildup of stress in space and time at tectonic plate
interfaces is a key component of explaining sequences of earthquakes and
aseismic slip (SEAS) at plate boundaries. In turn, successful modeling
of coseismic slip and post- and interseismic fault creep can provide
insights into mechanical properties of the fault zone material, as well
as into potential seismic hazards. In the past, incomplete modeling of
geodetic data to infer plate interface coupling has led to false
assumptions of relative seismic quiescence. The issue of stress shadows
in particular has led to the realization that improving our knowledge of
the stress deficit on any given plate interface requires modeling the
influence of past earthquakes (e.g., Hetland \& Simons, 2010).This study
aims to model the known historical sequence of earthquakes along the
Northern Japan subduction zone in terms of post- and interseismic fault
creep, at least to the extent it affects observed GNSS surface
displacement timeseries of the last decades. We start from the framework
presented by Kanda et al. (2013), who performed endmember simulations of
multi-cycle SEAS on the Japanese megathrust, assuming varying
rheological properties and fully-locked patches on the interface
(``asperities'') in order to match GNSS-derived interseismic plate
velocities. We extend this model by (1) taking into account the entire
GNSS network timeseries available in Northern Japan (containing co-,
post-, and interseismic periods) and (2) integrating it into a Markov
chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) solver to solve for the most probable
rheological properties of the plate interface.We present the results of
selected forward simulations, including timeseries of slip rate on the
fault and surface displacement, and compare them to GNSS observations.
We furthermore present preliminary results of the inferred best-fitting
rheological parameters (assuming rate-dependent friction).~%
\end{abstract}%



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